Market Watch

CTA Study Quantifies Tariffs Hit to Consumers’ Wallets

US-imposed tariffs on 10 key consumer technology product imports purchased onshore will reduce American consumers’ purchasing power by $123 billion, the Consumer Technology Association said in a new report.

The report, conducted by the Trade Partnership Worldwide, looked at the potential impact of President Trump’s campaign promises regarding tariffs. The effect, the firm found, is significant price increases for US consumers.

For example, the average retail price increases include:

  • Smartphones – 31%
  • Monitors – 32%
  • Laptops and tablets – 34%
  • Video game consoles – 69%.

The new report models a scenario in which:

  • The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariff ends, and reciprocal rates – ranging from 11 to 46% – are reinstated on all eligible products.
  • 25% tariffs – but no reciprocal rates – are imposed on the products subject to the Section 232 investigation launched in the April 15 order.
  • The 20% IEEPA tariff on China remains in place and stacks on top of the 125% on China, when applicable, or the 25% Section 232 tariff, leading to an effective 145% or 45% tariff on imports from China.
  • The 25% IEEPA tariffs on products that do not claim duty-free treatment under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement remain in place and stack on the Section 25% tariff, leading to an effective 50% tariff on non-USMCA claiming products subject to the investigation.
  • The Section 301 tariff increase on lithium-ion batteries from 7.5% to 25%, announced by the Biden administration, takes effect as scheduled on Jan. 1, 2026.

The model also assumed no further retaliation by trading partners.

Hot Takes

Sales of AR/VR headsets rebounded in the first quarter with 18.1% year-over-year growth. Meta led with a 50.8% market share. (IDC)

DDR4 16Gb chips are nearly twice as expensive as equivalent DDR5 – a first in DRAM history – as major players like Samsung and Micron and Chinese chipmakers are scaling back DDR4 production. (TrendForce)

Global smartphone shipments will grow a projected 0.6%, down from the 2.3% forecast earlier this year, reflecting growing economic uncertainty, tariff volatility and weakening consumer demand. (IDC)

PC shipments will grow 4.1% year-over-year to reach 274 million units in 2025, an upgraded outlook following a strong first quarter performance. (IDC)

North American PCB shipments in May 2025 rose 21.4% from the previous year and 7.1% sequentially. Bookings were up 9.5% year-over-year and down 12.9% from April. Year-to-date shipments are up 7.9% and orders are 18.3% higher. (IPC)

China’s memory chip makers are rapidly expanding in HBM and NAND, aiming for over 10% global market share despite export restrictions.

Taiwan’s export orders hit a May record, up 18.5% year-on-year, driven by strong AI and cloud demand despite weakness in traditional industries. (Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs)

Global foundry revenue fell 5.4% sequentially in the first quarter, softened by last-minute rush orders from clients ahead of the US reciprocal tariff exemption deadline, as well as continued momentum from China’s 2024 consumer subsidy program. (TrendForce)

North American EMS shipments fell 9.3% in May versus a year ago and slid 4.2% sequentially. Bookings rose 5% year-over-year and decreased 6% from the previous month. Year-to-date bookings are up 1.4% and shipments are down 2.3% compared to the same period last year. (IPC)

Server shipments will increase 10% year-on-year to 13 million units in 2025, of which AI servers will account for 77% of the overall server market value. (TPCA)

Shipments of global wrist-worn devices rose 10.5% year-on-year to 45.6 million units in the first quarter. (IDC)

Publicly listed Taiwanese PCB fabricators saw revenues increase nearly 13% year-over-year in May. (TPCA)

The global smartphone market showed signs of recovery in the first quarter, particularly in the low-end segment, which accounted for nearly 20% of total sales. (Counterpoint Research)

First-quarter hard-copy peripherals shipments rose 2.7% year-over-year to 19.4 million units. (IDC)Article ending bug