TPCA: Forecast PCB Market by Following the CapEx
TAIPEI – Want to know where the PCB industry thinks it’s headed? Watch where the money goes. Trace the capital spending of Taiwan’s listed PCB fabricators over the past few years and the story writes itself: capex and industry health move in lockstep.
That’s according to a new report from the Taiwan Printed Circuit Industry Association. From 2020 through 2022, pandemic-driven shortages and a run on electronics pushed output and capital spending up together. That was the last peak. Then came the hangover. In 2023 and 2024, with the channel choking on inventory and end demand limp, fabricators pulled in their horns and spending slowed hard.
Now the pendulum has swung back. Starting in 2025, AI demand lit the fuse, and capex is climbing again. The projection for 2026 is NT$203 billion ($6.2 trillion), an all-time high, according to TPCA.
Look at where that money is going and the shift is unmistakable. High-layer-count boards still take the biggest slice, riding demand for AI servers and advanced networking gear. ABF substrate lines are next, pulled along by AI chips. And HDI is getting its own push from AI servers and low-Earth-orbit satellites, sending manufacturers scrambling to stand up high-end lines and tighten their fine-line processes.
Here’s the difference that matters. The 2020-era buildout was about capacity; more square footage, more panels. This wave isn’t. It’s about technology and high-end capability. In other words, the industry has stopped competing on scale and started competing on precision.
The map is changing too. The old playbook – R&D in Taiwan, mass production in China – is giving way to a three-legged strategy spanning Taiwan, China, and points abroad.
Overseas now commands the largest share of 2026 spending, roughly 44%, with Thailand the single biggest destination. China’s slice has shrunk but still sits near 30%, and fabricators there keep pouring money into the high-layer-count and HDI capacity AI server demand. For all the talk of diversification, China remains Taiwan’s production backbone. Taiwan itself takes about 26%, concentrated on substrate and high-layer-count capacity. Tellingly, Taiwan remains where the advanced R&D, leading-edge processes, and key technology upgrades live.
Quick Hits
Global semiconductor sales reached a record $120 billion in May, rising 9% month-over-month and 104% year-over-year. (SIA)
The European Commission in July approved $771 million in German state aid to support four semiconductor manufacturing projects under the European Chips Act.
The global smartphone market shrank 6.7% year-on-year to 277.5 million units in the second quarter. (IDC)
The NAND flash market has remained undersupplied throughout 2026, driven by surging AI-related demand and limited capacity expansion. In 2027, server demand is anticipated to stay strong. However, ongoing process migrations by suppliers, steady growth in bit output, and persistent weak demand in consumer electronics are likely to gradually restore market balance. Consequently, the current supply tightness is expected to diminish in the latter half of 2027. (TrendForce)
Global smartphone shipments will decrease 11% year-on-year in the second quarter, falling to their lowest second quarter level since 2013. (Counterpoint Research)
Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales will reach a record $229 billion by 2028, up 23% year-over-year. (SEMI)
MLCC capacity utilization is forecast to remain heavily occupied by AI-related orders, extending lead times and increasing prices for high-end MLCCs in the second half of the year. (TrendForce)
The global robotaxi market will reach $1 trillion by 2040. (Morgan Stanley)
India has eliminated import duties on a range of electronics manufacturing equipment and components in an effort to lower production costs and strengthen domestic electronics manufacturing through 2029. (The Next Web)
Worldwide PC shipments fell 4.9% year-over-year in the June quarter to 68.2 million units. (IDC)
June North American PCB shipments rose 12% year-over-year but fell 18.5% from May. Year-to-date shipments are up 12.7%. Bookings climbed 31.5% from a year ago and dell 35.9% from May. Bookings are up 29% for the year. (GEA)
North American EMS shipments rose 6.7% in June from last year and 15.1% from May. For the year, shipments are up 7.4%. Bookings jumped 29.3% year-over-year and 6.6% from the previous month, and are up 5% for the year. (GEA)End of article content