AI’s PCB Boom is Running Into a Capacity Wall
TAIPEI – The PCB industry’s biggest problem right now is that it can’t build fast enough. At the TPCA Show on Oct. 20, Unimicron chairman S.C. Chien gave numbers that should worry anyone planning 2027 builds. Lead times for some key equipment have stretched to as long as 30 months. More than 80% of equipment now takes longer to arrive, and over 20% is running at more than double the original lead time. Low-CTE glass cloth, copper-clad laminate and ABF are all tight, and critical materials could fall 20% short of demand in 2027.
Unimicron also warns that the scramble for AI capacity is leading customers to double-book orders. Anyone who lived through the 2021 component crunch knows how that ends. Order books look stronger than real demand, until they suddenly don’t. Zhen Ding, the world’s largest PCB maker, says it expects no near-term relief.
The demand side isn’t in doubt. AI servers, larger substrates and higher layer counts are real, and they’re profitable. The risk is in reading the signals. When lead times run longer than product cycles, and buyers order twice to be sure of getting served once, bookings stop being a clean measure of demand. Fabricators, EMS providers and OEMs will spend 2027 figuring out how much of the current backlog is real.
Quick Hits
Global silicon wafer shipments are forecast to increase 11.8% to 14.4 billion square inches in 2026, with record highs expected each year through 2029, when shipments are projected to reach 17 billion square inches. (SEMI)
Global smartphone shipments fell 22% year-over-year to 255.3 million units in the third quarter, as escalating memory costs curbed consumer spending. (IDC)
EMS M&A activity rebounded to seven transactions in the third quarter following a slower second quarter, with consolidations accounting for roughly 57% of deals. (Lincoln International)
The PCB etching equipment market is projected to grow from $1.88 billion in 2026 to $2.58 billion in 2030, a CAGR of 8.2%. (The Business Research Company)
North American EMS shipments fell 10.8% in September versus the same month last year and dropped down 10.4% sequentially. Year-to-date shipments are up 3.6%. Bookings increased 41.7% year-over-year and rose 9.4% sequentially, brining the YTD increase to 19.3%. (GEA)
The global electronic chemicals and materials market is projected to grow from $79.8 billion in 2026 to $109.4 billion by 2031, a CAGR of 6.5%. (BCC Research)
The AR microLED display engine market is forecast to reach about $2.5 billion by 2031, while co-packaged optics engine revenue for AI data centers is projected to exceed $112 billion that year. (Yole Group)
September North American PCB shipments fell 6.4% year-over-year and dropped 33.9% sequentially Year-to-date shipments are up 13.3%. Bookings rose 229.4% from last year and 336% from August, and are up 56.1% for the year. (GEA)End of article content